Strategy & planning
Know what your marketing will return before you spend it
A budget tied to a revenue target, with a forecast that tells you what each channel should bring back.
Most marketing budgets are a number someone picked, then split across channels by feel. The result is spend you cannot defend and a year-end question you cannot answer: did any of this pay back. Budget and forecasting starts from the revenue you want and works backwards to the spend that produces it, channel by channel, with the assumptions on the table.
I have planned media budgets for global brands at agencies like MediaCom and PHD, and run the numbers in-house where the spend was mine to answer for. So I build forecasts the way an operator reads them: what goes in, what should come out, and where the plan breaks if a channel underperforms. You get a budget you can take to a partner or a board and stand behind.
What you get
- A month-by-month budget across every channel, tied to a revenue target you set
- A forecast model showing expected leads, sales and cost per customer for each channel
- Clear assumptions written down: cost per lead, close rate, average order value, ROAS (return on ad spend)
- Conservative, expected and stretch scenarios so you can see the range before you spend
- A simple rule for when to scale a channel up, hold, or cut it
- A live view that compares the forecast to actual results as the months land
How I do it
- 01
Map the current spend and what it returns
I track every channel you already pay for against the revenue it brings in, using GA4 (Google Analytics 4) and your ad platforms, so we know the real cost per customer before planning anything new.
- 02
Set targets from the maths, not a guess
Working back from your revenue goal, average order value and close rate, I size the budget each channel needs and the leads it has to produce to hit that number.
- 03
Build the forecast model
I lay the plan out month by month: spend in, leads and sales out, with the ROAS (return on ad spend) and cost-per-lead assumptions written down so nothing is hidden.
- 04
Pressure-test the assumptions
I run a conservative, expected and stretch version so you can see the downside before you commit, and we agree the point at which we would pull spend or move it.
- 05
Review against actuals and adjust
Each month I compare the forecast to what really happened and shift the budget toward what is working, so the plan stays honest instead of going stale in a spreadsheet.
A few tools I’ve already built
Quick examples you can try right now, to show the kind of thing I make. When your business needs something specific, I build it custom.
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Ad Waste Audit
Paste your search terms and get the wasted spend as a number, a negative-keyword list, and the fixes ranked by impact.
Leads
143
+22%
Cost/lead
$6
-14%
Visits
8.4k
+31%
Client Report Builder
Turn the month's ad, social, and site numbers into a branded report with a written read of what changed and why, not just charts.
Churn Risk Radar
Flags members who have stopped showing up before they cancel, so you can reach out while there is still time to save them.
What it does for the business
You go into the year knowing what your marketing should return and what it will cost to get there, channel by channel. When a number comes in soft, you see it early and move the budget instead of finding out at the end of the quarter. Spend becomes a decision you can defend, to yourself, a partner, or a board, because it is tied to a revenue target and tracked against real results.
The stack I use here
- GA4
- Google Ads
- Meta Ads
- Looker Studio
- HubSpot
- Google Sheets
Common questions
Yes. With no history I build the first plan from sensible benchmarks for your channels and category, then mark those assumptions clearly so we know they are estimates. Once real spend runs for a few weeks, I replace the benchmarks with your own numbers and the forecast gets sharper every month.
A forecast is a planning tool, not a promise, and I will never hand you a guaranteed number. What it does is make the assumptions visible so you can challenge them, and the three scenarios show the realistic range rather than one hopeful figure. Accuracy improves fast once we have actuals to calibrate against.
It should. The budget sits on top of your channel strategy and campaign planning, and the forecast only holds if the funnel underneath it converts. I can plan the budget on its own, or fold it into the wider strategy and run work so the plan and the spend stay in step.
Want this for your business?
Tell me where you want more customers. I read every message myself and come back to you, usually within a day.